Kenya’s Road to 2027 General Election: Political parties, presidential contest and coalition dynamics

As Kenya moves closer to the 2027 General Election, the country’s political landscape remains highly fluid, with shifting party loyalties, an unsettled presidential contest and continuing debate over the future of political coalitions.

TIFA Research’s June 2026 National Survey, first release examines how Kenyans currently view political parties, presidential contenders, the Broad-Based Government (BBG), voter registration and the emerging dynamics likely to shape the road to 2027.

Key findings

Kenya’s political landscape is becoming increasingly competitive. ODM currently attracts the highest level of party support at 20%, followed by UDA at 17%, DCP at 12%, Jubilee at 10% and Wiper at 7%. However, 28% of Kenyans do not currently identify with any political party, highlighting the significant share of voters whose political alignment remains open.

In the presidential contest, President William Ruto leads at 24%, while support for opposition figures remains dispersed. Edwin Sifuna records 15%, Fred Matiang’i 14%, Kalonzo Musyoka 13% and Rigathi Gachagua 7%, while 20% remain undecided. The findings point to a contest in which no candidate currently commands support approaching a national majority.

The survey also highlights important dynamics within the opposition. Among respondents who oppose President Ruto’s re-election, 62% believe Rigathi Gachagua’s most viable role would be to support another opposition candidate, whether or not he is ultimately eligible to contest, compared with 14% who believe he should become the main opposition candidate.

Within ODM, the internal divide is also evident. Among ODM supporters, 74% identify with the Linda Mwananchi grouping, compared with 20% supporting Linda Ground/Tuko Tayari.

Opinion on the Broad-Based Government remains divided, with 52% opposed, 30% supportive and 18% either having no opinion or being unaware of the arrangement.

Voter registration

While 83% of respondents say they are registered voters, age remains an important dividing line. Registration is substantially lower among younger Kenyans, with 57% of those aged 18–24 reporting that they are registered, compared with 97% among those aged 45 and above.

Among those who are not registered, lack of a National ID or other required documents is the most frequently cited reason, particularly among younger respondents.

About the survey

The survey was conducted between 13 and 22 June 2026 through household-based, face-to-face interviews with 2,048 Kenyan adults aged 18 and above across all 47 counties.

The nationally representative sample covers nine geographic zones and has an overall margin of error of ±2.18%, with larger margins applying to sub-samples. The research was funded by TIFA Research.

These findings represent a snapshot of public opinion at the time of the survey. As political parties select candidates, coalitions evolve and more Kenyans make decisions ahead of 2027, TIFA Research will continue tracking these trends and providing evidence-based insights into Kenya’s changing political landscape.

Read the full report: Kenya’s Road to 2027 General Election – Political Parties, Presidential Contest and Coalition Dynamics, June 2026 Survey | First Release.